John Tapogna

Tapogna is the past president of ECONorthwest, an economic consulting firm, and has worked on public policy issues for state and local governments for 25 years. He lives in Portland.

Oregon has been governed for 163 years by 38 individuals. Those governors have led and managed the state through wartime, civil unrest, wildfires, floods, economic recessions and a depression. Scanning across all this history, one of the most challenging governance tests fell during the 480 days between March 8, 2020 and July 1, 2021 – the period between Oregon’s COVID-19 emergency declaration and the day the state’s vaccination rate hit 70%.

Judging by the outcomes, Oregon performed well during the pandemic. So, can we muster our collective grace to thank Gov. Kate Brown for her public service during those extraordinary times?

Her test opened with a historically unprecedented, unthinkable act: closing the economy in order to save it. Locally, some criticized the governor for some initial hesitancy in issuing a “stay at home” order. But her deliberative, listen-to-all-parties style served the state well. She paused, reviewed other states’ orders and consulted public health experts. Then she rightly concluded many activities in construction, manufacturing and retail could continue while socially distancing. She kept them open. California, Washington and many other states didn’t.

If closing the economy was hard, re-opening proved even harder. There was no playbook. Every decision had to weigh impacts on three fronts: death, economic harm and public patience. Open too soon, or in the wrong places, and you overrun the hospitals, run out of ventilators, and are calling in refrigerator trucks to store bodies. Open too slowly, and you push some businesses into permanent closure, scar the economy and impede the long-term recovery. And test the public’s patience too long—regardless of what the science tells you—and you face a backlash with its own public health consequences.

Navigating those tradeoffs was her job day in, day out, evenings, nights and weekends. Her brutally grim math had to balance the value of lives saved against the cost of jobs and learning lost. She did that math with rapidly evolving science and a lot of unhelpful noise in the background. “It was an ongoing cost-benefit analysis of everything society values the most—life, livelihoods and human connection,” says Peter Graven, chief COVID forecaster at Oregon Health & Science University.

She navigated those tradeoffs better than most. The Commonwealth Fund, an international health care nonprofit, ranked Oregon’s COVID response fifth best in the U.S. thanks to relatively low hospital system stress, an effective vaccine rollout and consistently low mortality rates. Today, Oregon’s COVID death rate stands 36% below the U.S. average. About 8,900 Oregonians have lost their lives to COVID. Apply the higher U.S. mortality rate, and 5,000 more people would have died. Those are mothers, fathers, wives, husbands, grandmothers, grandfathers, brothers, sisters, daughters, sons, aunts and uncles. Sociologists tell us that every death has broader social impacts and, on average, leaves nine survivors deeply bereaved. So, in Oregon’s case 5,000 lives saved equals 45,000 fewer bereaved.

Reflect on that this holiday season.

Those lives saved came at a cost. The governor’s re-opening framework triggered periodic shutdowns when infection and death rates crossed pre-established thresholds. That slowed the recovery of the restaurant and entertainment sectors throughout 2021, but most businesses and workers turned to federal aid. Fast forward to today, and the pandemic scorecard shows Oregon was an average economic performer. As we end 2022, Oregon, like the nation, has fully recovered the jobs lost at the pandemic’s outset—a remarkable feat.

Some observers argue the governor should have opened the schools sooner. Placing teachers in the vaccine queue ahead of some seniors, together with a delayed school re-opening, was a notable misstep that she’d probably do differently. But there she might argue that the lost learning could still be recovered. Lives lost could not be.

Job approval may be too high a bar in these polarized days. But what if we settle for appreciation? Let’s appreciate and respect a remarkable, punishing 480 days of public service that our fellow Oregonian provided. Millions of us were legally eligible to have played that role, but only a handful of us would have been any good at it. It turned out she was.