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Health Insider predicts when omicron surge will drop off in Arizona

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After a record weekend of coronavirus cases reported in Arizona and 12,000 cases reported on Monday — half of what we saw Saturday — many are wondering if omicron has finally peaked in Arizona.

ABC15 Health Insider Dr. Shad Marvasti is making his prediction based on numbers in Africa where omicron first popped up and cities that have run through their peaks like New York City and Boston.

A month ago, when the daily case average in this state was 4,000, Dr. Shad warned that without mask mandates and more people getting vaccinated and boosted, numbers would go up, and, in fact, they have more than doubled.

Now, he says with no mitigation changes, we probably have about one or two more weeks of surging cases. The good news is after that, omicron seems to drop off rapidly.

“I would say by mid-February and beyond we’ll be seeing much better numbers than we are now. So, we’ll start to see a decline maybe in the next two weeks and then by mid-February be much better,” said Dr. Shad.

All cards on the table, no one saw omicron coming so a new variant could shuffle the deck again.

He also stresses people shouldn’t take omicron lightly. It is easier on those who are vaccinated and if you’re vaccinated and boosted, you are five times less likely to get infected. The unvaccinated now have 31 times the risk of dying if they get sick.

As for numbers where the surge is slowing, New York’s daily case count is averaging 51,000, down from 85,000 a week ago. New Jersey has seen a 32% drop in average daily cases and in Maryland cases are down 27%.

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Vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 are proving quite safe and highly effective in the prevention of COVID-19, especially severe and/or fatal disease.

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