A forecast released Thursday now anticipates the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 during the omicron surge won’t surpass the pandemic high set during the delta surge last September.

A forecast by Oregon Health & Science University says the state might reach its peak Sunday with 1,169 patients hospitalized with omicron. But data scientist Peter Graven, who calculates the forecast, said it’s also possible numbers already have peaked. Last Saturday, hospitalized patients reached an omicron high of 1,125. Oregon’s record currently stands at 1,178 from Sept. 1.

A forecast in December predicted hospitalizations could possibly exceed 3,000, before new data about omicron transmission rates prompted the estimate to lower to about 2,000. A forecast last week predicted just over 1,200 hospitalizations. Graven said the anticipated numbers continued to drop because many Oregonians embraced precautions, such as getting booster shots and continuing to wear masks.

The latest forecast predicts the number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 will return to pre-omicron levels by the end of March.

“We’re going to still have plenty of cases in Oregon, because with any hill there are just as many infections on the way down as on the way up,” said Graven in an OHSU news publication. “But we have a lot of immunity in the population now. It’s going to be harder and harder for the virus to put somebody in the hospital.”

In other news Thursday, the Oregon Health Authority reported 5,417 new known cases of COVID-19 and 18 new deaths – as one key measure of an overwhelmed testing system showed some improvement, further indicating that the omicron surge appears to be in decline.

The test positivity rate – which is the percentage of all tests administered that came back positive for COVID-19 – dropped to about 17%. That’s the first time in a month that the rate dipped below 20%. Experts say a test positivity rate above 5% is a warning sign of concerning levels of community transmission or a lack of testing to meet demand. Although 17% is still considered very high, the rate now appears to be headed in the right direction.

On top of that, the number of hospitalized patients with COVID-19 dropped slightly from the previous two days.

Also Wednesday, the state released its latest breakthrough report, which shows the number of COVID-19 cases reported in people who are fully vaccinated and boosted. According to the report, last week about 65% of people known to have been infected were unvaccinated or partially vaccinated and about 34% were either fully vaccinated or boosted. More than two-thirds of breakthrough cases were among people who hadn’t received a booster shot – evidence that boosters offer better protection.

Where the cases are by county: Baker (24), Benton (132), Clackamas (325), Clatsop (53), Columbia (77), Coos (101), Crook (52), Curry (37), Deschutes (289), Douglas (145), Gilliam (1), Grant (6), Harney (8), Hood River (25), Jackson (298), Jefferson (108), Josephine (117), Klamath (119), Lake (10), Lane (546), Lincoln (73), Linn (267), Malheur (78), Marion (629), Morrow (5), Multnomah (592), Polk (110), Sherman (2), Tillamook (40), Umatilla (178), Union (36), Wallowa (14), Wasco (48), Washington (586) and Yamhill (286).

Deaths:

An 81-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 20 and died Jan. 29 at Salem Hospital.

A 94-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 19 and died Jan. 28 at her residence.

A 61-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 15 and died Jan. 28 at Salem Hospital.

An 82-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 11 and died Jan. 28 at Legacy Silverton Medical Center.

A 79-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 7 and died Jan. 28 at Salem Hospital.

A 76-year-old man from Marion County who tested positive Dec. 19 and died Jan. 28 at Salem Hospital.

An 88-year-old woman from Malheur County who tested positive Feb. 1 and died Feb. 2 at St. Alphonsus Medical Center – Ontario.

A 51-year-old man from Malheur County who tested positive Jan. 29 and died Jan. 31 at St. Alphonsus Medical Center – Ontario.

An 80-year-old man from Lane County who tested positive Jan. 18 and died Feb. 1 at PeaceHealth Sacred Heart Medical Center at RiverBend.

A 79-year-old man from Josephine County who tested positive Jan. 14 and died Feb. 2 at Mercy Medical Center.

An 83-year-old woman from Douglas County who tested positive Jan. 23 and died Feb. 2 at Mercy Medical Center.

A 71-year-old woman from Douglas County who tested positive Jan. 24 and died Feb. 2 at Mercy Medical Center.

A 98-year-old man from Douglas County who tested positive Jan. 19 and died Jan. 26 at his residence.

An 83-year-old man from Columbia County who tested positive May 2, 2021, and died May 18, 2021, at Legacy Emanuel Medical Center.

An 85-year-old man from Union County who tested positive Jan. 17 and died Jan. 28 at his residence.

A 63-year-old man from Tillamook County who tested positive Dec. 31 and died Feb. 1 at Adventist Health Portland.

An 83-year-old woman from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 25 and died Jan. 29 at her residence.

A 72-year-old man from Marion County who tested positive Jan. 21 and died Jan. 28 at Salem Hospital.

Each person had underlying health conditions or the presence of conditions was being confirmed.

Hospitalizations: 1,087 people with confirmed cases of COVID-19 are hospitalized, down 17 from Wednesday. That includes 183 people in intensive care, down 10 from the previous day.

Since it began: Oregon has reported 649,389 confirmed or presumed infections and 6,181 deaths, among the lowest per capita numbers in the nation. To date, the state has reported 7,222,393 vaccine doses administered, fully vaccinating 2,831,492 people and partially vaccinating 300,504.

— Aimee Green; agreen@oregonian.com; @o_aimee